A 4 degree world: Environmental impacts

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53: North America

High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.

54: South America

High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.

55: Europe

High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.

56: Europe

High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.

57: Europe

High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.

58: Sahel

High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.

59: South Africa

High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.

60: Eastern Australia

High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.

61: North America

Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes.

62: Eastern, South America

Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes.

Soybean yield could decrease in all regions of production, including North and South America, southern and eastern Asia.

63: South Africa

Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes.

64: India/Bangladesh

Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes.

Decrease in rice yield of up to 30% in China, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia.

65: Eastern China

Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes.

Soybean yield could decrease in all regions of production, including North and South America, southern and eastern Asia.

Decrease in rice yield of up to 30% in China, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia.

66: Eastern US

Soybean yield could decrease in all regions of production, including North and South America, southern and eastern Asia.

67: South America

Water resources affected by up to 70% reduction in run-off around the Mediterranean, southern Africa and large areas of South America.

68: Europe

Water resources affected by up to 70% reduction in run-off around the Mediterranean, southern Africa and large areas of South America.

69: South Africa

Water resources affected by up to 70% reduction in run-off around the Mediterranean, southern Africa and large areas of South America.

70: Himalaya

Half of all Himalayan glaciers significantly reduced by 2050, even at a global average temperature below 4 ºC.

The Indus river basin obtains 70% of its summer flow from glacial melt.

In China, 23% of the population lives in the western regions where glacial melt provides the principal dry season water source.

71: Peru/Bolivia

Complete disappearance of glaciers from many regions in South America.

In Peru’s Cordillera Blanca summer run-off from glaciers reduced by up to 69% as the glacial area falls by 75%.

72: UK

Sea-level rise combined with storm surges could pose a serious threat to people and assets in the Netherlands and south-eastern parts of the UK.

73: India/Bangladesh

Sea levels could rise as much as 80 cm by the end of the century. Longer term, 4 º C (7 º F) would result in a much higher rise in sea level.

Sea level increases are likely to be even greater at low latitudes, disproportionately affecting tropical islands and low-lying regions such as Bangladesh.

For the population at 2075, a mean sea-level rise of 53 cm means that up to an additional 150 million people per year would be flooded due to extreme sea levels. Three-quarters of these people live in Asia. Up to 56 million people would be flooded along the Indian Ocean coast, 25 million along the east Asian coast and 33 million people would be flooded along the South-East Asian coast.

Other vulnerable regions include Africa, Caribbean islands, Indian Ocean islands and Pacific small islands.

74: East China

Sea levels could rise as much as 80 cm by the end of the century. Longer term, 4 º C (7 º F) would result in a much higher rise in sea level.

Sea level increases are likely to be even greater at low latitudes, disproportionately affecting tropical islands and low-lying regions such as Bangladesh.

For the population at 2075, a mean sea-level rise of 53 cm means that up to an additional 150 million people per year would be flooded due to extreme sea levels. Three-quarters of these people live in Asia. Up to 56 million people would be flooded along the Indian Ocean coast, 25 million along the east Asian coast and 33 million people would be flooded along the South-East Asian coast.

Other vulnerable regions include Africa, Caribbean islands, Indian Ocean islands and Pacific small islands.

75: SE Asia

Sea levels could rise as much as 80 cm by the end of the century. Longer term, 4 º C (7 º F) would result in a much higher rise in sea level.

Sea level increases are likely to be even greater at low latitudes, disproportionately affecting tropical islands and low-lying regions such as Bangladesh.

For the population at 2075, a mean sea-level rise of 53 cm means that up to an additional 150 million people per year would be flooded due to extreme sea levels. Three-quarters of these people live in Asia. Up to 56 million people would be flooded along the Indian Ocean coast, 25 million along the east Asian coast and 33 million people would be flooded along the South-East Asian coast.

Other vulnerable regions include Africa, Caribbean islands, Indian Ocean islands and Pacific small islands.

76: West Antarctic Ice Sheet

It is not known how stable the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is, or whether a 4 ºC (7 ºF) global temperature rise will send it into irreversible decline. If this ice sheet did melt it would contribute a further 3.3 metres to long-term sea-level rise globally.

77: Greenland Ice Sheet

Greenland Ice Sheet has a 60% likelihood of irreversible decline. This would result in a very long-term sea-level rise of up to 7 metres globally.

78: Indian Ocean

Marine ecosystems could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification which would have a significant impact on fisheries. This could cause substantial loss in revenue and jobs. The loss of coral reef habitats due to acidification may seriously affect many commercial fish species and could prove disastrous for coastal communities relying on subsistence fishing of reef species.

79: East Pacific Ocean

Marine ecosystems could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification which would have a significant impact on fisheries. This could cause substantial loss in revenue and jobs. The loss of coral reef habitats due to acidification may seriously affect many commercial fish species and could prove disastrous for coastal communities relying on subsistence fishing of reef species.

80: West Pacific Ocean

Marine ecosystems could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification which would have a significant impact on fisheries. This could cause substantial loss in revenue and jobs. The loss of coral reef habitats due to acidification may seriously affect many commercial fish species and could prove disastrous for coastal communities relying on subsistence fishing of reef species.

81: South Atlantic Ocean

Marine ecosystems could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification which would have a significant impact on fisheries. This could cause substantial loss in revenue and jobs. The loss of coral reef habitats due to acidification may seriously affect many commercial fish species and could prove disastrous for coastal communities relying on subsistence fishing of reef species.

82: North Atlantic Ocean

Marine ecosystems could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification which would have a significant impact on fisheries. This could cause substantial loss in revenue and jobs. The loss of coral reef habitats due to acidification may seriously affect many commercial fish species and could prove disastrous for coastal communities relying on subsistence fishing of reef species.

83: Europe

1 in 10-year drought events today occur twice as frequently across southern Africa, South-East Asia and the Mediterranean basin.

84: South Africa

1 in 10-year drought events today occur twice as frequently across southern Africa, South-East Asia and the Mediterranean basin.

85: SE Asia

1 in 10-year drought events today occur twice as frequently across southern Africa, South-East Asia and the Mediterranean basin.

86: Russia

Almost complete disappearance of near-surface permafrost from Northern Siberia. Reduction of permafrost in Canada and Alaska. Infrastructure built on the permafrost foundation at risk.

87: Canada

Almost complete disappearance of near-surface permafrost from Northern Siberia. Reduction of permafrost in Canada and Alaska. Infrastructure built on the permafrost foundation at risk.

88: Indian ocean and coasts

Tropical cyclones could be more intense and destructive. Global population increases, particularly in coastal areas, and sea-level rise mean greater cyclone and hurricane related losses, disruptions to infrastructure and loss of life as a result of storm surges. For major cyclone disasters flooding from storm surges has been the primary cause of death.

89: Japan and coasts

Tropical cyclones could be more intense and destructive. Global population increases, particularly in coastal areas, and sea-level rise mean greater cyclone and hurricane related losses, disruptions to infrastructure and loss of life as a result of storm surges. For major cyclone disasters flooding from storm surges has been the primary cause of death.

90: Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclones could be more intense and destructive. Global population increases, particularly in coastal areas, and sea-level rise mean greater cyclone and hurricane related losses, disruptions to infrastructure and loss of life as a result of storm surges. For major cyclone disasters flooding from storm surges has been the primary cause of death.

91: East China

Hottest days of the year could be as much as 6 ºC (11 ºF) warmer over highly populated areas of eastern China.

92: N America

Hottest days of the year could become as much as 10-12 ºC (18-22 ºF) warmer over the eastern North America, affecting Toronto, Chicago, Ottawa, New York and Washington DC.

93: Europe

Hottest days of the year across Europe could be as much as 8 ºC (14 ºF) warmer.